And the winner is....
As rare as my blog postings are, it's even rarer that I wade into the morass of politics, but with Super Tuesday coming up (and Mardi Gras the same day so everyone can have an excuse to get hammered depending on the outcome), I'm going to make a prediction. I have no idea if I'm right, but this is what my gut tells me: our next president will be John "I'm storing nuts in my cheeks for the winter" McCain. Not saying that's good or bad or what I want, just that I think it will come to pass.
Why? Well first, let's look at the Republican field. Just like the Democrats, candidates are dropping faster than economic health indicators. And of the ones that are left, Romney appears to be the only other serious contender left. Huckabee? I think even most Republicans are going to think twice before producing something called "President Huckabee". Ron Paul? Sure, he's the darling of many with his dismantle-everything philosophy, but it ain't gonna happen- although, he could certainly be a spoiler if he decides to run as an independent. More about that later.
So, it's McCain or Romney. To a degree, they're both centrists trying their best to look Conservative, but Romney looks a lot more wishy-washy doing it. Still, die-hard conservatives will probably choose Romney over McCain. After all, Rush Limbaugh and Ann "The Bride of Satan" Coulter are calling for McCain's head because of his maverick ways and refusal to toe the party line or stick purely to traditional conservative dogma- but that is exactly the sort of thing that will endear him to many. And Romney has "the Mormon thing" around his neck- a lot of people just think Mormons are way too weird and won't be able to get past that. And he's kinda boring. Plus, McCain spent the Sixties hanging by his thumbs in a Vietnamese prison, and that's tough to beat.
Now, the Democrats- Hillary or Obama. Whichever one gets it, this will be an amazing occurrence. We are virtually assured that the actual, official, viable Democratic candidate for the Presidency of the United States will be either a woman or a black man. That's really something, and I think it's way cool. Unfortunately I don't think either one would win.
I'm not even going to try to call the candidacy, because I think it's still way too close to call, and the extraordinary, JFK-like appeal of Obama has so far made things unpredictable. That golden-boy appeal has dimmed a bit in the wake of all the petty bickering with Hillary, but it's still very much there. Plus, Hillary is way too divisive a figure even in her own party, and even more so on the national stage- which is why I don't think she's electable. When the idea was first being floated about her running, I thought, no way, shouldn't go there, she won't win. And I still feel that way. When her hubby was President- and even before- there were so many people who HATED her, and they still do. It isn't just your standard political loathing; they really flat-out despise the woman. Obama is another story. Sure, there will be idiots who hate him for the color of his skin or for his unfortunate middle name, but I think he could still really give McCain or Romney a run for their money. Before losing, that is.
And why would Obama- or Hillary- ultimately lose? For one thing, I think it's tougher for a Democrat to get elected President, for a number of reasons, so Republicans have a natural advantage. I think McCain will be the Republican candidate, and his maverick ways will appeal to moderates, while the Republican faithful will vote for him in any case. Plus, Americans have shown, in the elections of Dubya and Reagan and even Bill Clinton, that they like to elect bulldogs as President. Yes, I know Hillary also counts as a bulldog (shut up, I said bullDOG... I said shut up!), but in a face-off, McCain is by far the bulldoggiest. If Ron Paul acts as a spoiler, he'll draw from both sides- but I think he'll draw more from the left, really. And now Ralph "Apparently I have absolutely nothing better to do" Nader is talking about doing his thing again, which would be another hit to the left. In any case, HillBama will make a good run of it, but lose to Chipmunk Cheeks.
Anyway, there it is- Zonthar's call for the 2008 election, whatever it's worth. If I were you, I wouldn't go placing any large bets based on it.
Why? Well first, let's look at the Republican field. Just like the Democrats, candidates are dropping faster than economic health indicators. And of the ones that are left, Romney appears to be the only other serious contender left. Huckabee? I think even most Republicans are going to think twice before producing something called "President Huckabee". Ron Paul? Sure, he's the darling of many with his dismantle-everything philosophy, but it ain't gonna happen- although, he could certainly be a spoiler if he decides to run as an independent. More about that later.
So, it's McCain or Romney. To a degree, they're both centrists trying their best to look Conservative, but Romney looks a lot more wishy-washy doing it. Still, die-hard conservatives will probably choose Romney over McCain. After all, Rush Limbaugh and Ann "The Bride of Satan" Coulter are calling for McCain's head because of his maverick ways and refusal to toe the party line or stick purely to traditional conservative dogma- but that is exactly the sort of thing that will endear him to many. And Romney has "the Mormon thing" around his neck- a lot of people just think Mormons are way too weird and won't be able to get past that. And he's kinda boring. Plus, McCain spent the Sixties hanging by his thumbs in a Vietnamese prison, and that's tough to beat.
Now, the Democrats- Hillary or Obama. Whichever one gets it, this will be an amazing occurrence. We are virtually assured that the actual, official, viable Democratic candidate for the Presidency of the United States will be either a woman or a black man. That's really something, and I think it's way cool. Unfortunately I don't think either one would win.
I'm not even going to try to call the candidacy, because I think it's still way too close to call, and the extraordinary, JFK-like appeal of Obama has so far made things unpredictable. That golden-boy appeal has dimmed a bit in the wake of all the petty bickering with Hillary, but it's still very much there. Plus, Hillary is way too divisive a figure even in her own party, and even more so on the national stage- which is why I don't think she's electable. When the idea was first being floated about her running, I thought, no way, shouldn't go there, she won't win. And I still feel that way. When her hubby was President- and even before- there were so many people who HATED her, and they still do. It isn't just your standard political loathing; they really flat-out despise the woman. Obama is another story. Sure, there will be idiots who hate him for the color of his skin or for his unfortunate middle name, but I think he could still really give McCain or Romney a run for their money. Before losing, that is.
And why would Obama- or Hillary- ultimately lose? For one thing, I think it's tougher for a Democrat to get elected President, for a number of reasons, so Republicans have a natural advantage. I think McCain will be the Republican candidate, and his maverick ways will appeal to moderates, while the Republican faithful will vote for him in any case. Plus, Americans have shown, in the elections of Dubya and Reagan and even Bill Clinton, that they like to elect bulldogs as President. Yes, I know Hillary also counts as a bulldog (shut up, I said bullDOG... I said shut up!), but in a face-off, McCain is by far the bulldoggiest. If Ron Paul acts as a spoiler, he'll draw from both sides- but I think he'll draw more from the left, really. And now Ralph "Apparently I have absolutely nothing better to do" Nader is talking about doing his thing again, which would be another hit to the left. In any case, HillBama will make a good run of it, but lose to Chipmunk Cheeks.
Anyway, there it is- Zonthar's call for the 2008 election, whatever it's worth. If I were you, I wouldn't go placing any large bets based on it.
posted by Zonthar at
3:40 PM
2 Comments:
yup, gotta agree. if mccain gets the nommie, he has the best odds hands down (which for him is a good thing since his arms don't raise that high anyway)...
Fishstick- Yeah- at least we won't be getting the Baptist minister as President, although we still could get the Mormon...
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